How the BUY or WAIT signal works.

The decision AirSuq is trying to make

AirSuq evaluates the timing of a fare, not whether a destination is worth visiting or which airline you should prefer. For a selected flight, the product estimates whether a meaningfully cheaper buying opportunity is likely to appear in the prediction window.

Signals used at a high level

The public product combines several categories of evidence without exposing proprietary model internals:

• Current fare: the priced flight the user actually selected.
• Market context: how the current fare compares with available route/date price signals and typical ranges.
• Time to departure: the amount of booking time remaining before the flight.
• Observed price movement: exact-flight or broader market history when enough observations exist.
• Outcome feedback: later prices are used to measure whether earlier recommendations were useful.

How to read the probability and confidence

Price drop chance is the estimated probability that a meaningfully cheaper buying opportunity appears within the prediction window. No-drop chance is its binary complement for that decision. Confidence expresses how strongly the available evidence supports the displayed signal; it is not the probability that AirSuq is “correct”.

Price forecasting is inherently uncertain. Airlines can change inventory, promotions, fare classes, schedules, and availability without notice. A BUY or WAIT recommendation should therefore be treated as decision support, not a promise.

Why AirSuq tracks outcomes

A prediction product should be judged against what happens later. AirSuq stores price observations and prediction snapshots so the system can measure calibration and decision quality over time. The long-term goal is to rely increasingly on AirSuq's own exact-flight historical dataset as that dataset becomes large enough to evaluate responsibly.